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Election: 2010 Primary Predictions Ellicott still a toss up

September 14, 2010

Predictions not endorsements: Predicted that incumbents re-elected in Democratic Primary election today, September 14, 2010.

Common Council: City of Buffalo

The Ellicott District: Toss-up

Still a competition between Rev. Darius Pridgen and Dr. Curtis Haynes, Jr. as Bryon McIntyre draws from the same African-American base, lessening the chances of Pridgen, so its a toss-up.   Haynes supported by two Latino political groups–the Alliance and Nosotros while Pridgen the “Brownistas,” the Rev. Casimiro Rodriguez part of his entourage at the Puerto Rican Day Parade on Saturday, September 11, 2010 on Niagara Street on the West Side of Buffalo. Stone Wall Democrats of WNY and the “Hoytistas” in the Hispanic community aligned with Haynes as well. And, it’s battle between Grassroots supporters of Pridgen and the Unity Coalition supporters of Haynes led by  “Champ”  Artur O. Eve Jr., a VP in the Erie County Democratic Party  aligned with NOSOTROS.

60th Senate District:  Senator Antoine Thompson

Thompson appears to be the only elected official back by all three Puerto Rican political groups–Nosotros, The Hispanic Alliance and  Western New York Hispanic & Friends Civic Association. The two white candidates, Rory Allen, a political new-comer is  fiercely competing , and Alfred T. Coppola both accused each other of spoilers in the race. Gay newspaper the Outcome endorsed Rory Allen. The  primary Statistics 2008 of the nearly 25,000 voted,  18,000 voted for Thompson and 6, 838 for Grisanti.

58th Senate District: William (Bill) Stachowski

A glossy   8 by 11 campaign  literature handed out at the Puerto Rican Day Parade featured Sen. Stachowski in photos with Dr. & Mrs. Vazquez, Niagara Councilman David Rivera, Chito Olivencia, Wilmer Olivencia, Jr. President of NOSOTROS, School Board President Ralph Hernandez, Robert Quintana, former Niagara District Councilman, Lourdes Iglesias, Executive Director of Hispanics United, as well as, Betty Jean Grant and  former Council President George K. Arthur. While from the other candidates for the 58th Senate District, Thomas Casey, Timothy M. Kennedy and Michael Kuzma—Kennedy a viable  2nd choice.

Edwin Martinez, President of the Hispanic Alliance accompanied Erie County Legislator Tim Kennedy up Niagara Street during the P.R Day Parade. He is not a fan of  Stachowski.

144th Assembly District: Sam Hoyt

During the PR Day Parade the “Hoytistas” entourage included Juan Texidor, considered a founding father of the Puerto Rican community, walking up Niagara Street with Maria Whyte, Michael Kearns, “Chito” Olivencia , Mike LoCurto, David Rivera and others. As long a Hoyt continues to enrich his campaign coffers with donations from the hedge fund investors and the likes of Mayor Bloomberg in NYC supporters of charter schools he’ll be hard to beat. And Democrats for Education Reform sent out a communication asking supporters to write checks out to the politicians on the “hot list” because they support charter schools. And Fred Klonsky’s blog predicted “there is a good chance they will go down” in the September primaries though for reasons other than Mayor Brown’s, one blogger predicted “Sam isn’t going anywhere…” The other contender  Councilman Joseph Golombek running a strong  campaign  financially  he’s no competition for Hoyt.

New York City:

15th Congressional District: Charles B. Rangel

The Latino vote is significant in the 15th both name recognition and $$$ prevail here. With  former NYC Mayor David Dinkins endorsing Senator Andriano Espaillat over the weekend, drawing more Hispanic (Dominican) voters to Rangel what may have been a toss-up between Adam Clayton Powell, IV and Rangel  is too close to call now but Rangel predicted to prevail.

U.S. Senate: Kirsten Gillibrand

33rd Senate District, Majority Leader, Pedro Espada, Jr.

With both name recognition and still lots of $$$ though the Democratic Party leaders have attempted to deplete his campaign coffers in targeting him for investigations still Senate Majority Leader Pedro Espada, Jr. is too popular among the constituents of his district while for ousted former Senator Hiram Monserrate it’s an iffy political comeback as the Democratic Party once again is pushing him out along with the PAC groups supporting same-sex marriage he voted against when senator. And Sean Coffey candidate for attorney general had a photograph of Monserrate juxtaposed with an image of former Republican State Senator Joseph Bruno citing their conviction records.

39th Assembly District: Hiram Monserrate

Up hill battle for Monserrate attempting to capture his foe Senator José Peralta Assembly seat while his competitor Francisco Moya heavily endorsed and financed by the Democratic Party and PACs supporting same-sex marriage in the area.

Attorney General appears to be the only competitive  state-wide race in the primary with  two-term Nassau County District Attorney, Kathleen Rice, running  a close race with state Sen. Eric Schneiderman, D-Manhattan, in fundraising and for the Democratic attorney general nomination along side of  federal prosecutor Sean Coffey, Assemblymember Richard Brodsky, (D-Westchester) and former state insurance superintendent Eric Dinallo. Kathleen Rice appears to have the political edge here as voters in surveys prefer someone who is not entrench in the  culture of corruption in Albany.

Attorney General: Kathleen Rice

Puerto Ricans State Democratic Committee and Judicial Delegates:

Member of the State Democratic Committee: David Rivera

Delegates to 8th Judicial District Convention:

141st Assembly District: Oswaldo Mestre, Jr.

144th Assembly District: David A. Rivera, Edgar Martinez, Ralph Hernandez,                                                         Rosa Fernandez

Alternates Democrats: 8th Judicial District

144th Assembly District: Jonathan Rivera, Wilmer Olivencia, Jr., Benjamin Matta

A total of 41 Delegates and 36 Alternates to be voted for the 8th Judicial District Democratic Convention  later to select the  Party candidates  for the  five NYS Supreme Court Justices in the 8th Judicial District held within 20 days after the September 14 primaries.



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